A Reflection on Covid Mania

At the beginning of this year I wrote about how the governments of the world had created a collective state of hysteria so intense that the only way they could dig themselves out of the hole they had made was with a magic bullet. That magic bullet was, of course, the vaccines. I wrote that it didn’t really matter how effective the vaccines were in the real world, or whether they prevented transmission. All that mattered was getting every single person on the planet to take the vaccine, after which the politicians would be able to declare victory.

It’s now eight months later, and we can conclude that the prediction has come to pass. In many western countries, 70+ percent of the adult population is now vaccinated. In the early part of this year, hospitalizations and deaths started to drop, and they stayed low all summer. The convenient explanation at the time was that this was thanks to the vaccines, even though the drop started at a time when very few people were vaccinated – the reduction was clearly driven by something else. My guess is that it was due to the onset of herd immunity to the original covid strain. The decline was halted temporarily due to the arrival of the more infectious alpha strain (which raised the herd immunity threshold due to its higher infectiousness), but was quickly followed by a continued trend downwards as the population reached herd immunity even to that more infectious strain. This was helped in part, perhaps, by the vaccines, and then helped even more by the arrival of summer and the effect of seasonality.

As autumn has come along, cases and deaths have started to rise again in many places, in part due to the seasonal effect, and in part, likely, due to the arrival of the even more infectious delta variant (which raises the herd immunity threshold even further). In the official narrative, the increase in cases and deaths is blamed on the unvaccinated, who are supposedly driving the development of vaccine resistant variants. It’s true that the unvaccinated are more likely to end up in hospital with covid than the vaccinated – the vaccine does offer protection against covid, after all. But it isn’t true that the unvaccinated are driving vaccine resistance.

It seems that the  doctors and ”experts” who appear on tv and who drive public policy have completely forgotten how evolution works. Let’s take bacteria as an analogy. Bacteria develop resistance to antibiotics when we use antibiotics too generously. Indiscriminate use of antibiotics puts evolutionary pressure on bacteria to develop resistance, since that’s the only way they can survive in the antibiotic saturated environment. Yet, now, we are supposed to believe that the opposite is true for viruses – they apparently develop resistance when we underuse vaccines! We’re suddenly supposed to believe that up is down and down is up.

Just like with bacteria and antibiotics, vaccine resistance will develop in a situation where the vaccines are being overused – if you vaccinate large numbers of healthy young people who don’t really need to be vaccinated then you put strong evolutionary pressure on the virus to become vaccine resistant. Maybe this could be avoided in an imaginary scenario where you can vaccinate every single person on the planet on the same day, thereby stopping the virus in its tracks. But that’s no realistic. It’s taken six months or more to get to 70% vaccinated in most countries, which has given the virus plenty of time to evolve in response to pressure from the vaccines. If we had stuck with only vaccinating the elderly and other risk groups, then we wouldn’t have put as much evolutionary pressure on the virus to develop resistance to the vaccines, and the vaccines might have been more effective for longer.

After a year of massive fear mongering by governments and the media, it would have been impossible not to offer the vaccine to everyone who wanted it. Even those not at risk believed they were in danger and demanded the vaccine. There was thus always going to be a massive vaccine uptake. But that wasn’t enough. Because it couldn’t be. The logic created by the “deadly pandemic” narrative demands that every single person alive be vaccinated. That is why there is no recognition of the effects of seasonality or of the fact that prior infection provides a level of protection to new infection that is at least as good as that provided by vaccination.

We now see an obsession with vaccinating everyone that can only be described as pathological. The tone taken towards those people who have so far chosen not to be vaccinated is derogatory and dehumanizing to the extreme. They are portrayed as ”anti-vaxxers”, tin foil hat wearing loons, and irresponsible “granny killers”. No effort is made to listen to their real arguments, such as that the vaccine has not been shown to be less risky than the disease for healthy young people, or that it’s hard to trust data from pharmacetical companies and drug regulators when they’ve repeatedly been caught lying and hiding data in the past, or that the vaccine is still only a year old and there is no long term follow-up data. These very valid arguments are portrayed as ridiculous, outlandish, and dumb, when they are anything but.

Peter Goetzche argued in his book, “Deadly medicines and organized crime”, that no-one should take a new drug that’s been on the market for less than seven years, in light of the fact that it often takes that long for dangers to become known and dangerous drugs to be pulled off the market. In recent months, we’ve learned that the Astra-Zeneca vaccine can cause deadly blood clots in the brain, and we’ve learned that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines can cause myocarditis. The authorities say that these events are extremely rare, based on the number of events that are reported to the authorities. But this ignores the fact that most adverse events don’t get reported.

In recent weeks, I’ve personally seen multiple cases of myocarditis that occurred days after vaccination. When I’ve suggested to colleagues that we should report them to the authorities as possible vaccine side effects, the response I’ve been met with has been roughly this: “oh, yeah, maybe that’s a good idea… I don’t know how to do that”. I’ve reported the cases I’ve handled personally, but my guess, based on this reaction, is that most other cases have not been reported. Obviously, if you believe that what actually gets reported is an accurate estimate of the reality, then you will grossly underestimate the case rate.

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