Core Durable Goods Orders Disappoint In August

After July’s disappointing dip, US Durable Goods Orders were expected to rebound in early August data released today, and rebound they did with a big 1.8% MoM bounce (vs +0.7% expected), and July’s 0.1% drop was revised up to a 0.5% MoM rise..

Source: Bloomberg

That is the 4th straight monthly improvement in the headline durable goods orders print, and pushes it back above pre-COVID levels…

Source: Bloomberg

However, core durable goods (Ex Transports) disappointed, rising only 0.2% MoM vs +0.5% MoM expected – the weakest since February…

Source: Bloomberg

The headline print’s beat was dominated by a 77% surge in non-defense aircraft and parts new orders.

That lifts the highest level for non-defense aircraft and parts new orders since Oct 2019…

So, it’s a Goldilocks number – enough in there to support “growth/recovery” thesis, with outliers that defend the “no need to taper/hike rates too soon” narrative.