Did The Greens Peak Too Soon In Germany?
For the past year the Green Party has surged in popularity, riding from what I can gather, a kind of anti-government wave coming from the left thanks to Angela Merkel’s continued mishandling of the COVID vaccination program and the exhaustion from multiple rounds of lockdowns.
Protests across Germany, under-reported in the news, have proliferated and the rise of the Greens can be seen as a kind of simple protest vote against the existing government, another of Merkel’s Grand Coalitions between her nominally center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democrats (SPD).
The SPD has lost considerable support over the term of this government and the Greens have been the beneficiary. I’ve talked about this previously and how Merkel uses the Greens as her whip hand in the Upper House, the Bundesrat, to push German policy along the vector set by her masters in Davos.
That’s resulted in both a loss of support for the CDU and the SPD nationally as the Greens have gained such that the electoral map in Germany is now functionally no better than the mess in Spain or Italy.
And from where I’m sitting this has always looked to be the plan.
Germany, Ipsos poll:
CDU/CSU-EPP: 25% (-8)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 23% (+14)
SPD-S&D: 13% (-8)
+/- vs. 2017 election
Fieldwork: 18-25 May 2021
Sample size: 2,014
— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) May 28, 2021
The problem, however, is that after peaking nationally at nearly 28% earlier this year, Green support is coming back down to earth as people being listening sincerely to what they actually stand for.
They’ve become increasingly bellicose, supporting war in Ukraine to counter Russia as well as their silence recently over the conflict between Hamas and Israel. They’re led by interventionist and increasingly neoconservative people internally while trading on their pacifist roots. And that dichotomy is beginning to catch up with them apparently among German voters.
This is because the Greens, just like Merkel, are a wholly-owned subsidiary of The Davos Crowd’s agenda to make the world safe for communism and the Green New Deal, itself a 593-page piece of EU legislation that is bogged down in ideological infighting within the European Parliament as members there fight over typical things like the definitions of words and what is or is not ideologically pure enough.
It’s Jonathan Haidt’s “Elephant and the Rider” problem playing out at a policy level.
In a post for my Patrons back on March 23rd I said then that the biggest enemy of the Green New Deal is the Greens.
So much of the ‘culture war’ which is now turning into a Hobbesian “War of All Against All” is due to the spiraling of logic built on false premises, like man-made global warming, and amplifying from there.
W.B. Yeats called it a ‘widening gyre’ but that’s why the EU will never get its Green investment rules set in place and certainly not in time for the 2030 time frame. Remember, I think of the EU as the Western Oligarchs’ last attempt to colonize the world through regulatory dominance a la California.
The relentless talk of expanding the EU is all about bringing more countries under its regulatory rubric forcing more people to adhere to its standards which then increases the pressure on trade partners to do the same.
It’s California on Leninist Steroids.
And I still fear not the Green New Deal itself but the haphazard way it gets implemented once the lobbyists get a hold of it. It will be a horrifically bloated piece of rotting pork which the average, fiscally-conservative German voter knows they will ultimately have to pay for.
So, with that in mind and the Greens peaking in the polls four months out from the Bundestag elections, itself a zombie institution thanks to the Greens’ veto power in the Burdesrat thanks to Merkel, it is possible that we see a sharp U-turn in the polls by the time the election actually happens.
Why? State-level elections.
Next week state elections happen in the German State of Saxony-Anhalt. And the closer we get to this election, for the first time in months, German polling is interesting. Because the heretofore incompetent Alternate for Germany (AfD) has successfully placed themselves in the position to win that election making it very difficult for Merkel, the very definition of lame duck, to keep them out of the government there through backroom dealings.
It’s one thing when the CDU is the dominant vote-getter, but it’s another thing when after two election cycles in Saxony, AfD is denied a seat at the table when they have a stable 23-25% level of support which is surging as we get to election day.
In this way if AfD wins this election it will be a black eye to all the other parties if they again pull the same stunt as in the last round of elections, refusing to even talk with them. And this could be the thing that catalyzes real movement in the polls come October.
I still maintain that AfD has squandered its many chances this far to become the center-right standard bearer for the average German. They are still mired below the critical 16% Chasm nationally while the SPD have fallen into irrelevance. Recent polls have the national number rising off of post-Coronapocalypse lows. And the question now is whether they see this opportunity in front of them to put Davos’ agenda on its back foot at a critical juncture in European history and position themselves as the true anti-war, pro-German middle class party.
I’m not sanguine about this given its leadership’s history, but it bears watching as the split between the former East and West Germany politically widens. Davos is always pushing events to ensure weak leadership in key countries. And it looks to me that the situation in Germany is fluid in a way that could see their best plans compromised.
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Tue, 06/01/2021 – 03:30