Futures Surge To All Time High As Earnings Supercharge Market Meltup
The wall of worry that preoccupied traders just weeks ago has melted away, and has been replaced with a global market melt up (just as Goldman predicted again this weekend), which pushed US index futures to a new all time high this morning when spoos hit 4,580.75, while propelling European and Asian stocks higher as corporate earnings helped boost sentiment amid lingering concerns about inflation and growth. As of 715am ET, US equity futures were up 0.42% or 19.25 points, Dow Jones futures were up 126 points or 0.35% and Nasdaq futures jumped 0.61%, extending cash market gains boosted by Tesla’s rally to a $1 trillion market value on a big order and Facebook’s results announcement revealing strong user growth and a $50 billion stock buyback. 10-year Treasury yields dropped by 1 basis point while the dollar slid to session lows. Bitcoin traded around $63,000.
The barrage of earnings reports continued on Tuesday morning, with United Parcel Service, General Electric and 3M all gaining in pre-market trading after strong results. Eli Lilly advanced after raising full-year forecasts. Bakkt shares jumped 36% in the U.S. premarket session after more than tripling Monday when Mastercard said it has inked a deal with the firm to help banks offer cryptocurrency rewards on their debit and credit cards. Facebook also rose after pledging to buy back as much as $50 billion more in stock, with tech heavyweights Twitter, Alphabet and Microsoft reporting after the market close on Tuesday. Here are all the notable premarket movers:
Facebook (FB US) rises as much as 2.5% in premarket as analysts stay bullish despite a third-quarter revenue miss and an outlook that was below consensus. Advertising growth is seen improving in 2022.
Tesla (TSLA US) gains 1% after stock closed at a record high, boosted by several factors on Monday including a large car order from rental firm Hertz and Morgan Stanley lifting its price target.
Creatd (CRTD US) was up 27% adding to a 50% gain over the past two trading sessions amid a rally in a growing number of retail-trader favorite stocks linked to former U.S. President Donald Trump.
Redbox (RDBX US) rises as much as 130% after the firm completed a business combination with Seaport Global Acquisition, a special purpose acquisition company.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks rise, with Eqonex (EQOS US), previously known as Diginex, more than doubling in value after listing Polkadot on its platform and Bakkt (BKKT US) extending Monday’s gains.
Earnings season is helping to counter concerns that elevated inflation and tightening monetary policy will slow the recovery from the pandemic. Some 81% of S&P 500 members have reported better-than-expected results so far, though CitiGroup Inc. warned that profit growth may be close to peaking.
Equity markets are “continuing their recovery and we expect this process to continue past big-tech earnings” and this week’s European Central Bank meeting, where policy makers may flag the end to their pandemic bond-buying program, Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Investment Funds, wrote in a note.
Still, some analysts voiced caution over the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on supply chains: “Even though this has been a good earnings season in aggregate we are starting to see more companies with supply backlogs, hiring difficulties, and rising input prices that are eating into profits,” Deutsche Bank analysts wrote.
The debate over price pressures continued when former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said officials are unlikely to deal with “inflation reality” successfully until it’s fully recognized.
The MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 50 countries, added 0.1%
European shares hit the highest level in seven weeks: the Stoxx Europe 600 index rose more than 0.5% led by gains in travel stocks and insurers, and edging close to a the record high reached in September while German stocks gained 0.9%. Reckitt Benckiser gained more than 5% after the maker of Strepsils throat lozenges raised its sales forecast. Swiss lender UBS Group AG climbed after posting a surprise jump in profit, while Novartis AG advanced on news it may spin off its generic-drug unit. After a stellar quarter for U.S. and British banks, Switzerland’s UBS rose over 2% on its highest quarterly profit since 2015, helping the financial services sector climb about 1%.
Earlier in the session, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index traded 0.3% higher in afternoon trading, paring an earlier gain of as much as 0.7% which pushed it to its highest level in six weeks. Asian stocks rose as investors focused on encouraging earnings reports from some of the world’s biggest technology companies. The advance was driven by a subgauge of IT names including South Korean memory chipmaker SK Hynix, which climbed after reporting record sales and forecasting further demand growth. Japanese electronics giants Nidec Corp. and Canon Inc. reported results after Tuesday’s close. “The earnings season so far continues to meet investor expectations and assuage inflationary concerns,” said Justin Tang, head of Asianresearch at United First Partners. Tesla’s order from Hertz, good prospects for the $550 billion U.S. infrastructure bill and the latest talks between U.S. and China officials also helped “inject some risk appetite,” Tang said. Japan led gains among national benchmarks, with the Topix rising more than 1%. The market was helped by a local media report that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party may be able to win a majority of seats on its own in the general elections scheduled for next week. Key gauges in tech-heavy South Korea and Taiwan also jumped more than 0.5%, while benchmarks fell in Hong Kong and China.
In China, Modern Land China Co. became the latest builder to miss a payment on a dollar bond, in a further sign of stress in the nation’s real estate sector. Defaults from Chinese borrowers on offshore bonds have jumped to a record.
Japanese stocks advanced as investors looked toward earnings reports from major companies and political stability after the upcoming election. Electronics makers and telecommunications providers were the biggest boosts to the Topix, which gained 1.2%. Fast Retailing and Tokyo Electron were the largest contributors to a 1.8% rise in the Nikkei 225. Asian stocks and U.S. futures also rose, following the S&P 500’s climb to a record high, amid positive news from Tesla and Facebook. Japanese companies reporting results today include Canon, Nidec and Hitachi Construction Machinery. Meanwhile, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party may be able to exceed a majority of 233 seats on its own in the general elections scheduled for Oct. 31, a poll conducted by Asahi showed. “There’s a lot of noise out there but for stocks, it’s about fundamentals, which are corporate earnings,” said Hiroshi Matsumoto, head of Japan investment at Pictet Asset Management. “We’re starting to see some pretty good earnings figures, so I’m thinking we’ll see the Nikkei 225 consolidate around the 29,000 level this week.”
In rates, Treasuries were cheaper across front-end of the curve, fading a portion of Monday’s gains even as corporate earnings propel stock futures to new highs. The 10-year TSY yield is lower by less than 1bp at 1.622%; 2-year yields are cheaper by ~1bp on the day while long-end of the curve is richer by ~1.5bp, flattening 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by ~2bp. The TSY curve is flatter with long-end yields richer on the day, unwinding Monday’s steepening move. Treasury auction cycle begins with sale of 2-year notes, followed by 5- and 7-year offerings over next two days.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was mixed but slumped to session lows as US traders walked in. The pound led gains followed by other risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Sterling gained even as overnight index swaps show traders trimmed back bets for BOE tightening, pricing in 14 basis points of hikes in November, down from 15 points previously. The yen was the worst performer as demand for haven assets receded following talks between U.S. and Chinese officials on the economy and cooperation in which some incremental progress was made. The euro inched up after gyrating toward the $1.16 handle; the euro’s volatility skew flattened in the past two weeks, suggesting a rebound in the spot market. Given the latter has stalled at a key resistance area, risk reversals could show downside risks once again. The Turkish lira rallied the most in more than four months after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan dropped his demand for 10 Western ambassadors to be expelled from the country.
China’s offshore yuan gained for a fourth straight day, lifted by a phone call between the U.S. and China on trade and economic issues. Overnight borrowing costs sunk to one-month lows after the central bank boosted cash injections into the financial system.
In commodities, WTI crude oil was steady around $84 a barrel and Brent traded above $86 as investors weighed the outlook for U.S. stockpiles and prospects for talks that may eventually help to revive an Iranian nuclear accord, allowing a pickup in crude exports.
Gold held above $1,800 an ounce and Bitcoin hovered around $62,500.
Looking at today’s calendar, we get the August FHFA house price index, September new home sales, October Conference Board consumer confidence and Richmond Fed manufacturing index. In central banks, ECB’s Villeroy and de Cos will speak. In corporate earnings, we will get results from Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Eli Lilly, Novartis, Texas Instruments, UPS, General Electric, UBS and Twitter
S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 4,576.25
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 474.91
MXAP up 0.4% to 200.93
MXAPJ up 0.2% to 662.77
Nikkei up 1.8% to 29,106.01
Topix up 1.2% to 2,018.40
Hang Seng Index down 0.4% to 26,038.27
Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,597.64
Sensex up 0.4% to 61,232.14
Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 7,443.42
Kospi up 0.9% to 3,049.08
German 10Y yield little changed at -0.12%
Euro little changed at $1.1609
Brent Futures down 0.3% to $85.76/bbl
Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,802.76
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 93.86
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
Traders are wagering on rate hikes of as much as 158 basis points over the next year in countries including the U.K., New Zealand and South Korea amid soaring costs of living and commodity prices. Yet a flattening in yield curves — historically seen as the market’s assessment of economic health — indicates rising concern that such a rapid withdrawal of support will hurt the nascent recovery
Financial markets have stubbornly ignored recent warnings from ECB policy makers including Chief Economist Philip Lane that they’re wrong to anticipate a rate hike at the end of next year. The task of persuading people otherwise will fall to President Christine Lagarde as she presents the Governing Council’s latest decision on Thursday
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pac stocks were lifted by the tailwinds seen stateside, whereby the SPX and DJIA both notched fresh all-time-highs, although the NDX outperformed as Tesla shot past the USD 1000/shr mark and USD 1trl market cap milestone. US equity futures overnight drifted higher with the NQ narrowly outperforming its peers. European equity futures also posted mild gains. Back to APAC, the ASX 200 (+0.1%) was kept afloat by tech names as the sector saw tailwinds from the stateside performance. The Nikkei 225 (+1.8%) outperformed following the prior session’s underperformance, and as the JPY drifted lower during the session. The KOSPI (+0.9%) was also firmer with SK Hynix rising some 3% at the open as chip demand supported earnings. The Hang Seng (-0.4%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.3%) opened flat but the latter was initially underpinned following another chunky CNY 190bln net liquidity injection by the PBoC. The Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index fell almost 5% in early trade, whilst Modern Land noted that it will not be able to meet payments and shares were halted until future notice. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower amid spillover selling from T-notes and Bund futures.
Top Asian News
MediaTek Sees 2021 Revenue Growing by 52%; 3Q Profit Beats
UBS Going ‘Full Bull’ on China Despite Outflows, Growth Worry
China’s IPO Flops Raise Red Flag Over Shares Pricing: ECM Watch
Asian Stocks Rise as Investors Focus on Major Tech Earnings
European equities (Stoxx 600 +0.6%) trade on a firmer footing after extending on the tentative gains seen at the cash open with the Stoxx 600 at its best level in around seven weeks. The APAC session saw some support via the tailwinds seen in the US after the SPX and DJIA both notched fresh all-time highs and the NDX outperformed and Tesla shot past the USD 1000/shr mark and USD 1trl market cap milestone. The Nikkei 225 (+1.7%) led gains in the region alongside a firmer JPY whilst the Shanghai Comp (-0.3%) was unable to benefit from another chunky liquidity injection by the PBoC. Stateside, futures are indicative of a firmer cash open with the NQ (+0.6%) continuing to outpace peers with Facebook +2.4% in pre-market trade post-results which saw the Co. announce a USD 50bln boost to its share buyback authorisation. From a macro perspective, with the Fed in its blackout period and events on Capitol Hill not providing much impetus for price action, the equity landscape will likely be dominated by earnings with the likes of Alphabet, Microsoft, General Electric, 3M, Visa, AMD and Twitter all due to report today. Earnings are also playing a pivotal role in Europe today with Reckitt (+6.4%) top of the FTSE 100 and supporting the Personal and Household Goods sector after Q3 results prompted the Co. to raise its sales outlook. UBS (+0.6%) is off best levels but still firmer on the session after reporting its highest quarterly profits in six years. Countering the upside from UBS in the Banking sector is Nordea (-4.0%) with shares weighed on by Sampo selling 162mlnn shares in the Co. to institutional investors. Novartis (+1.6%) shares are trading broadly inline with the market after opening gains were scaled back post-Q3 earnings which saw the Co. report a 10% increase in operating profits and announce a strategic review of its generic drug unit Sandoz. Telecoms are near the unchanged mark and unable to benefit from the broader gains seen across the region as Orange (-2.7%) acts as a drag on the sector after announcing a decline in Q3 earnings.
Top European News
UBS Going ‘Full Bull’ on China Despite Outflows, Growth Worry
Adler Sells Real Estate Portfolio Valued at More Than EU1B
Europe Gas Extends Gains With Weak Russian Flows, Norway Outages
Latest Impact of Europe’s Energy Crisis is a Plunge in Trading
In FX, the 94.000 level remains tantalisingly or agonisingly close, but elusive for the Dollar index, and it could simply be a psychological barrier as a breach would clear the way for a complete comeback from trough to 94.174 peak set last week. However, the Greenback has lost some yield attraction and the broad risk tone is bullish to dampen demand on safe-haven grounds, while chart resistance and option expiries are also preventing the Buck from staging a more pronounced rebound ahead of a busier US agenda including housing data, consumer confidence, several regional Fed surveys and the first slug of issuance in the form of Usd 60 bn 2 year notes. Back to the DXY, 93.965-795 encapsulates trade thus far, and the 21 DMA stands at 93.966 today, just 3 ticks shy of Monday’s high.
AUD – In similar vein to its US counterpart, the Aussie is finding 0.7500 a tough round number to crack, convincingly, but Aud/Usd is deriving support from the ongoing recovery in industrial metals awaiting independent impetus via Q3 inflation data tomorrow.
JPY/CHF – The Yen and Franc continue to lag their major peers and retreat further vs the Dollar, with the former now struggling to keep sight of the 114.00 handle even though hefty option expiries reside from 113.85 to the big figure (1 bn), and Usd/Jpy faces more at the 114.50 strike (1.1 bn), while the latter is sub-0.9200 and unwinding more gains relative to the Euro as the cross probes 1.0700.
GBP/NZD – Conversely, Sterling remains primed for further attempts to extend gains beyond Fib resistance and breach 1.3800, while eyeing 0.8400 against the Euro irrespective of some UK bank research suggesting that BoE Governor Bailey may not back up recent hawkish words with a vote to hike rates at the November MPC. Elsewhere, the Kiwi is still hovering above 0.7150 and defending 1.0500 vs its Antipodean rival with a degree of traction via RBNZ Governor Orr warning that climate change could culminate in a lengthy phase of stronger inflation that needs a policy response.
EUR/CAD – Both rather flat, as the Euro continues to pivot 1.1600 and rely on option expiry interest for underlying support (1.5 bn rolling off from the round number to 1.1610 today), but also anchored by the 21 DMA that aligns with the big figure, while the Loonie has lost its crude prop on the eve of the BoC, though should also receive protection from expiries at 1.2400 (1 bn) within a 1.2394-68 range.
EM – The Try has reclaimed more lost ground to trade above 9.5000 vs the Usd on a mix of corrective price action and short covering rather than any real relief about Turkey’s latest rift with international partners given another blast from President Erdogan who said statements issued by ambassadors on Kavala target his country’s judiciary and sovereignty, adding that the Turkish judiciary does not take orders from anyone. On the flip-side, the Zar is softer alongside Gold and ongoing issues with SA power supply provided by Eskom.
In commodities, WTI and Brent have been softer throughout the European morning dipping from the initially steady start to the APAC session after yesterday’s pressured; nonetheless, prices haven’t dipped too far from recent peaks. Newsflow for the complex and broadly has been sparse thus far as focus remains very much on earnings and events due later in the week. Specifically for energy, we had commentary from Russian Deputy PM Novak that he wants OPEC+ to stick to the agreement to increase production by 400k BPD at the November gathering, commentary which had little impact on crude at the time. Elsewhere, the weekly Private Inventory report is due later in the session and expectations are for a build of 1.7mln for the headline crude figure; for reference, both distillates and gasoline stocks are expected to post a draw. Moving to metals, spot gold and silver are pressured this morning with initial downside perhaps stemming from a short-lived resurgence in the USD; however, while the metals do have a negative bias, the magnitude of this – particularly in spot gold – is fairly minimal. Separately, base metals are softer with LME copper hindered and still shy of the 10k figure. Again, newsflow this morning has been limited but we did see a production update from Hochschild who confirmed FY21 production guidance of 360-370k gold-equivalent ounces after reporting that Q3 was the strongest period of the year, thus far.
US Event Calendar
9am: Aug. S&P Case Shiller Composite-20 YoY, est. 20.00%, prior 19.95%; 9am: MoM SA, est. 1.50%, prior 1.55%
9am: Aug. FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 1.5%, prior 1.4%
10am: Oct. Conf. Board Consumer Confidenc, est. 108.2, prior 109.3
Present Situation, prior 143.4
Expectations, prior 86.6
10am: Oct. Richmond Fed Index, est. 5, prior -3
10am: Sept. New Home Sales, est. 758,000, prior 740,000; MoM, est. 2.5%, prior 1.5%;
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
If you’ve never seen Lord of the Flies feel free to come round to our house where you’ll get a live performance that gets more authentic the longer this two week half-term holiday we’re in goes on. Yet again working is the safest option. We have the option to “purchase” extra holiday each year but I’m thinking of seeing if I can give some back and take the money instead. They are hard work when put into a room together for any period of time.
It was not only the fighting that was the same as last week, markets were pretty similar yesterday too as we saw fresh equity highs alongside renewed multi-year highs in breakevens. There are a few subtle changes in company reporting trends though. Even though this has been a good earnings season in aggregate we are starting to see more companies with supply backlogs, hiring difficulties, and rising input prices that are eating into profits. Indeed yesterday saw a few consumer staples companies lower full year profit outlooks in their earnings releases.
Nevertheless, major equity indices marched higher, with the small cap Russell 2000 (+0.93%) and Nasdaq composite (+0.90%) outperforming the S&P 500 (+0.47%). Consumer discretionary stocks were the clear outperformer, driven by news of Tesla (+12.66%) receiving a 100k car order from Hertz. Tesla’s big day saw it become the first automaker to cross 1 trillion dollar market cap and also drove the outperformance of the FANG index ahead of Facebook’s after hours earnings release.
Speaking of which, Facebook missed revenue estimates but beat on earnings. Shares were slightly higher in after-hours trading, where they are betting big on virtual reality technology.
Overnight in Asia, the Nikkei 225 (+1.75%) and the KOSPI (+0.61%) are outperforming the Hang Seng (-0.42%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.01%). The sentiment in China is being clouded by the news of another developer, Modern Land China Co., missing a payment on a $250 million dollar bond. This news came as Bloomberg reported that Chinese firms set a yearly record on offshore bond defaults. Another development in the region is that Hong Kong has pushed back against yesterday’s calls for an easing in its virus rules which the banks in particular were calling for. In geopolitics, China’s Vice Premier Liu He and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen held a call about trade and economic concerns, boosting sentiment in Asian markets, while the S&P 500 mini futures (+0.24%) is trading higher. The yield on 10y Treasury (+0.7bps) is also up. In data releases, South Korean preliminary GDP for Q3 came in at +4.0% versus +4.3% expected, while Japan’s services PPI for September declined to +0.9%, missing estimates of +1.1%.
Back to yesterday and in fixed income, as mentioned at the top inflation breakevens continued their march higher. In the US, 10-year Treasury breakevens (+2.7 bps) closed at 2.67%, just shy of their widest levels since 10-year TIPS began trading in 1997. 10yr nominal yields were -0.2 bps lower as real yields slipped -2.3bps to their lowest levels since mid-September. European breakevens kept pace, with 10-year German breakevens increasing +1.9bps to 1.93% and UK breakevens increasing +1.2 bps to 4.20%. As was the case with the US, real yields fell as nominal 10-year yields decreased across Europe. Bunds (-0.9bps), Gilts (-0.5bps), OATs (-1.1bps) and BTP (-3.4bps) yields all fell.
Crude oil futures put in a mixed performance. Multiple OPEC+ members signaled they won’t increase supply at their upcoming meeting leading to gains in crude, yet the gains were short lived, as headlines noted that Iran and the EU will stage talks to restore the 2015 nuclear deal, paving a way for Iranian oil supply to return to the market. Brent futures finished +0.54% higher while WTI futures were unchanged. Natural gas prices were on a one-way track higher, however. US natural gas prices had their biggest one-day gain in a year, increasing +11.70%, on the back of a colder forecast for the upcoming winter as supply issues still abound. European and UK natural gas prices were only modestly higher by comparison, increasing +1.27% and +1.86%, respectively. European leaders are gathering in Luxembourg today for an emergency meeting on the energy crisis.
European equities were almost unchanged, with the STOXX 600 (+0.07%) finishing with marginal gains with energy (+1.27%) leading. The German DAX (+0.36%) gained with the help of stronger IT (+1.76%) performance despite Ifo expectations (95.4) coming in below consensus (96.6).
In other data releases, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index came at -0.13 versus 0.20 expected. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index (14.6), however, surprised on the upside by coming above expectations (6.0). Delivery times remained elevated in the survey, and a special question showed that labour supply issues got slightly worse.
In virus news, Moderna reported that its vaccine showed a strong immune response for children from 6 to under 12 years old. Meanwhile, China announced in its initial guidelines that unvaccinated athletes at the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing would have to quarantine for 21 days, while Hong Kong was pressured by banks to relax its zero-COVID policy.
In today’s data releases, August FHFA house price index, September new home sales, October Conference Board consumer confidence and Richmond Fed manufacturing index are due from the US. In central banks, ECB’s Villeroy and de Cos will speak. In corporate earnings, we will get results from Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Eli Lilly, Novartis, Texas Instruments, UPS, General Electric, UBS and Twitter
Tue, 10/26/2021 – 07:47