Key Events This Busy Week: Trump Impeachment #2, Powell Speaks; Inflation Data, Earnings Season Starts
In another week which will likely be dominated by political events as traders follow the second impeachment of Donald Trump, DB’s Jim Reid writes that this week isn’t the busiest in terms of planned events with the data highlights including the US CPI (Wednesday) and retail sales (Friday) data for December, while there’ll also be the release of the ECB’s account of its December meeting (Thursday) and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book (Friday). Reid expects that the economic highlight will be Biden outlining more details on his new administrations priorities on Thursday. This may give us some clues on the direction of travel for stimulus that he aims to get through Congress.
Here is a visual breakdown of key data, courtesy of BofA:
Of course, there’ll be lots of attention on whether the Democrats try to impeach President Trump with less than 10 days left in office but it will be more of a curiosity than a market moving event. Overnight, the House speaker Pelosi has said that Democratic leaders will move to impeach this week unless VP Mike Pence and the cabinet invoke the 25th Amendment. So a busy few days ahead in the Capitol.
Finally, there are a limited number of earnings releases, ahead of a much busier earnings calendar over the coming weeks: Blackrock (Thursday), JPM, Citigroup and Wells Fargo (Friday) are the highest profile companies kicking things off. The full day by day week ahead is at the end of the piece today.
Below, courtesy of Deutsche Bank, is the day-by-day calendar of events
Monday January 11
- Data: China December CPI, PPI
- Central Banks: Fed’s Bostic, Kaplan and ECB’s Vasle speak
Tuesday January 12
- Data: US December NFIB small business optimism index, November JOLTS job openings
- Central Banks: Fed’s Brainard, Rosengren, Kaplan, and Kashkari speak
Wednesday January 13
- Data: Italy November industrial production, Euro Area November industrial production, US weekly MBA mortgage applications, December CPI, monthly budget statement, Japan November core machine orders (23:50UK time), December PPI (23:50 UK time)
- Central Banks: Federal Reserve releases Beige Book, Fed’s Clarida, Brainard, Harker, and ECB’s Villeroy speak
Thursday January 14
- Data: US weekly initial jobless claims, December import price index, China December trade balance
- Central Banks: ECB releases account of December monetary policy meeting, Fed Chair Powell, Fed’s Rosengren and Bostic speak
- Earnings: BlackRock
Friday January 15
- Data: China December new home prices, Japan November tertiary industry index, UK November GDP, Euro Area November trade balance, US December PPI, retail sales, capacity utilisation, industrial production, January Empire State manufacturing survey, preliminary January University of Michigan sentiment
- Central Banks: Bank of Korea monetary policy decision
- Earnings: JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup
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Democrats will launch a second attempt to remove Dormld Trump from office on Monday when they introduce articles of impeachment in the House. The Senate won’t reconvene until Jan. 19 and Senate Republican Leader Mitch McCormell said Friday that a trial can’t begin before then uraess all 100 senators consent to it — an exceedingly unlikely development, as Trump retains allies among Republicans in the chamber.
Reports suggest Trump and a dwindling circle of advisers plan a defiant final week in office, according to people familiar with the matter. Trump is believed to be preparing at least one more round of pardons, and will try a final time to advance his administration’s effort to bring Big Tech to heel, though it isn’t clear what he may do.
What does all this mean for markets, probably not a great deal but politically between an impeachment movement and Trump’s censorship by social media political polarization is not going away anytime soon despite the Blue Wave,
The Biden Plan:
The President elect is due to outline his stimulus plan on Thursday. Biden has guided that the price tag with be “high” and in the “trillions” and is expected to include plans for U5$2,000 stimulus checks, more generous unemployment assistance and enhanced aid to city and state governments.
Lagarde & Powell:
Christine Lagarde’s first public appearances of the year (Mon 8 Weds) may provide clues for investors on the implications for monetary policy. We also get the latest ECB minutes on Thusday. Note, Fed Chair Powell speaks later that day taking part in the Princeton Economics webinar.
In the UK, GDP data for November will give an initial glimpse of the economic damage inflicted by a renewed lockdown that imposed that month to contain the coronavirus. Economists predict a sharp drop of 4.8X, the first contraction in seven months with with weakness concentrated in services activity, as pubs, restaurants, gyms and non-essential shops closed.
The US data focus will include CPI inflation (Wed), weekly jobless claims (Thu), retail sales (Fri) and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment (Fri). Retail sales probably fell for a third straight month. The auto and gasoline components likely rose, but spending at bars and restaurants probably plunged, due to COVID restrictions. Inflation is likely to move higher on gasoline price moves but outside of that component, price pressures remain quite benign, according to ING.
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Finally, focusing on just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the CPI report on Wednesday and the retail sales report on Friday. There are numerous speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including Vice Chair Clarida on Wednesday and Chair Powell on Thursday.
Monday, January 11
There are no major economic data releases scheduled.
- 12:00 PM Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (FOMC voter) speaks; Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will discuss his economic outlook for 2021 in a virtual event hosted by the Rotary Club of Atlanta. Prepared text is not expected. Audience Q&A is expected.
- 06:00 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will discuss the economy and monetary policy in a virtual town hall hosted by the Dallas Fed. Moderated Q&A is expected.
Tuesday, January 12
- 06:00 AM NFIB small business optimism, December (consensus 100.3, last 101.4)
- 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, November (consensus 6,500k, last 6,652k)
- 11:00 AM Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC non-voter), Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC non-voter), and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speak: Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, and Minnesota Fed President Neel Kashkari will host a virtual series titled “Racism and the Economy.”
- 01:00 PM Kansas City Fed President George (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Kansas City Fed President Esther George will discuss her outlook for the economy and monetary policy. Audience Q&A is expected.
- 02:00 PM Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren will discuss the economic outlook for 2021 at an event hosted by the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce. Prepared text and audience Q&A are expected.
- 05:00 PM Fed Governor Brainard (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Governor Lael Brainard will speak at a Fed symposium on artificial intelligence. Prepared text is expected. Q&A is not expected.
Wednesday, January 13
- 08:30 AM CPI (mom), December (GS +0.33%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.2%); Core CPI (mom), December (GS +0.08%, consensus +0.1 %, last +0.2%); CPI (yoy), December (GS +1.26%, consensus +1.3%, last +1.2%); Core CPI (yoy), December (GS +1.60%, consensus +1.6%, last +1.6%): We estimate a 0.08% increase in December core CPI (mom sa), which would leave the year-on-year rate unchanged at +1.6% on a rounded basis. Our monthly core inflation forecast reflects a virus-driven pullback in airfares and hotel prices and further normalization in used car prices off of elevated levels. We also expect another decline in the health insurance component. On the positive side, we expect further normalization in car insurance rates. We also estimate a reacceleration in shelter categories because our shelter tracker has recently stabilized and the sequential drag from rent forgiveness might be mostly behind us. We estimate a 0.33% increase in headline CPI (mom sa) due to higher oil prices.
- 01:00 PM Fed Governor Brainard (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Governor Brainard will give a virtual speech on the economic outlook and full employment to the Canadian Association for Business Economics. Prepared text and moderated Q&A are expected.
- 02:00 PM Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will discuss his economic outlook in a virtual event hosted by the Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia. Prepared text is not expected. Audience Q&A is expected.
- 03:00 PM Fed Vice Chair Clarida (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Vice Chair Clarida will hold a virtual discussion on the Fed’s new framework at an event hosted by the Hoover Institution. Prepared text and moderated Q&A are expected.
Thursday, January 14
- 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended January 9 (GS 795k, consensus 785k, last 787k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended January 2 (consensus 5,000k, last 5,072k): We estimate initial jobless claims increased to 795k in the week ended January 9.
- 08:30 AM Import price index, December (consensus +0.7%, last +0.1%)
- 09:00 AM Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren will discuss the economic outlook for 2021 at an event hosted by the Boston Business Journal. Prepared text and Q&A are not expected.
- 11:00 AM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will moderate and give closing remarks on a virtual panel on small business recovery. Prepared text and Q&A are not expected.
- 12:30 PM Fed Chair Powell (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Chair Powell will take part in a Princeton Economics webinar. Prepared text is not expected. Moderated Q&A is expected.
- 01:00 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will take part in a virtual moderated Q&A hosted by the University of Texas at Austin.
Friday, January 15
- 08:30 AM PPI final demand, December (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.1%); PPI ex-food and energy, December (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.1%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, December (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.1%): We estimate that headline PPI increased 0.4% in December, reflecting stronger energy and food prices and a solid increase in core prices. We expect a 0.2% increase in the core measure excluding food and energy, and also a 0.2% increase in the core measure excluding food, energy, and trade.
- 08:30 AM Empire State manufacturing survey, January (consensus +5.5, last +4.9)
- 08:30 AM Retail sales, December (GS +0.1%, consensus flat, last -1.1%); Retail sales ex-auto, December (GS -0.1%, consensus -0.2%, last -0.9%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, December (GS -0.3%, consensus -0.3%, last -0.8%); Core retail sales, December (GS +0.3%, consensus flat, last -0.5%): We estimate that core retail sales (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials) rebounded by 0.3% in December (mom sa). High-frequency data suggest an improvement in retail goods spending trends since our holiday sales update and following the weak November Census report. However, we expect a sharp drop in restaurant spending related to the virus resurgence to weigh on the ex-auto ex-gas category. We estimate +0.1% and -0.1% for the headline and ex-auto measures, respectively, reflecting higher auto sales and gasoline prices.
- 09:15 AM Industrial production, December (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.4%); Manufacturing production, December (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.8%); Capacity utilization, December (GS 73.6%, consensus 73.5%, last 73.3%): We estimate industrial production rose by 0.6% in December, reflecting a rebound in the utilities category and a further increase in manufacturing production. We estimate capacity utilization rose by 0.3pp to 73.6%.
- 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, January preliminary (GS 79.5, consensus 80.0, last 80.7): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index declined by 1.2pt to 79.5 in the preliminary January reading as rising virus spread and job losses could weigh on sentiment.
Source: Deutsche Bank, Goldman,BofA,
Mon, 01/11/2021 – 09:01