Key Events This Quiet Week: FOMC Minutes, Service ISM And More Fed Chatter
It is a lighter week for global data releases, with the March FOMC Minutes, US ISM services, China PMIs, Eurozone PPI, and Japan consumer confidence figures among the highlights. Earnings are light as well ahead of next week’s official Q1 earnings debut, but Sberbank and Lukoil releases will provide insight about the impact of the war on Russian companies. On politics, the first round of the French Presidential elections are coming up Sunday.
Courtesy of Deutsche Bank, here is a day-by-day calendar of events.
Monday April 4
Data: US February factory orders, Japan March monetary base, Germany February trade balance, Canada February building permits
Central banks: BoE’s Bailey and Cunliffe speak, BoC Overall Business Outlook Survey
Tuesday April 5
Data: US February trade balance, ISM services index for March, Japan February labour cash earnings, France February industrial production, Italy March PMIs, Canada February international merchandise trade
Central banks: Fed’s Brainard speaks, RBA decision
Wednesday April 6
Data: China March PMIs, Germany February factory orders, March construction PMI, UK March construction PMI, Eurozone February PPI
Central banks: FOMC meeting minutes, Fed’s Harker speaks, ECB’s Lane speaks
Thursday April 7
Data: US initial jobless claims, February consumer credit, Japan February leading and coincident indices, Germany February industrial production, Eurozone February retail sales
Central banks: ECB’s account of March monetary policy meeting, Fed’s Bullard and Bostic speak, BoE’s Pill speaks, BoJ’s Noguchi speaks
Earnings: Samsung, Sberbank
Friday April 8
Data: Japan February trade balance, March consumer confidence index, Italy February retail sales, Canada March unemployment rate, hourly wage rate, participation rate
Central banks: ECB’s Stournaras, Makhlouf and Herodotou speak
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Looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data release this week is the ISM services index on Tuesday. The minutes from the March FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday, and there are several speaking engagements from Fed officials this week.
Monday, April 4
10:00 AM Factory orders, February (GS -0.1%, consensus -0.6%, last +1.4%); Durable goods orders, February final (consensus -2.2%, last -2.2%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, February final (consensus -0.6%, last -0.6%); Core capital goods orders, February final (last -0.3%); Core capital goods shipments, February final (last +0.5%): We estimate that factory orders decreased 0.1% in February following a 1.4% increase in January. Durable goods orders decreased 2.2% and core capital goods orders decreased 0.3% in the February advance report.
Tuesday, April 5
08:30 AM Trade balance, February (GS -$88.0bn, consensus -$88.5bn, last -$89.7bn); We estimate that the trade deficit decreased by $1.7bn to $88.0bn in February, reflecting a larger increase in exports than in imports in the advanced goods report.
10:00 AM ISM services index, March (GS 59.0, consensus 58.4, last 56.5): We estimate that the ISM services index rebounded 2.5pt to 59.0 in March, reversing much of its 3.4pt drop in February. Our forecast reflects a rebound in the employment component back into positive territory, as well as increases in the business activity component amid improving public health.
10:05 AM Fed Governor Brainard (FOMC voter) speaks: Fed Governor Lael Brainard will take part in a moderated virtual discussion on the unequal impacts of inflation hosted by the Minneapolis Fed. Prepared text and moderator Q&A are expected. In a speech on February 18th prior to the March meeting, Brainard stated that she anticipates “it will be appropriate at our next meeting to initiate a series of rate increases”.
02:00 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will take part in a moderated virtual discussion on health and the economy hosted by the New York Fed. In a speech on April 2nd, Williams stated that he expects “this process of reducing the size of the balance sheet can begin as soon as the May FOMC meeting”.
Wednesday, April 6
09:30 AM Philly Fed President Harker (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will discuss the economic outlook during a virtual event hosted by the Delaware State Chamber of Commerce. Prepared text and audience Q&A are expected. In an interview on March 29, Harker stated that he “penciled seven 25bp increases for this year” and that he is “very open to going faster”. He also stated that he “wouldn’t take a 50bp increase off the table for the next meeting” but emphasized that he is “not committing to that right now”.
02:00 PM FOMC meeting minutes, March 15-16 meeting: At the March meeting, Powell said that the FOMC made “excellent progress” on its plan for shrinking the balance sheet and could finalize and implement it “as soon as our next meeting in May.” We see this as a strong hint and expect the FOMC to announce the start of balance sheet reduction in May. Powell also said that the minutes to the March meeting will reveal some of the key parameters of the balance sheet reduction process, and that it will be faster than last cycle but will otherwise look “very familiar.”
Thursday, April 7
08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended April 2 (GS 195k, consensus 200k, last 202k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended March 26 (consensus 1,302k, last 1,307k): We estimate initial jobless claims declined to 195k in the week ended April 2.
09:00 AM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will discuss the economy and monetary policy at a hybrid event hosted by the University of Missouri in Columbia. Prepared text and Q&A with both audience and media are expected. In an essay published on March 29, Bullard stated that “the FOMC should raise the policy rate to 3% by the end of the year and implement a plan to quickly reduce the size of the Fed’s balance sheet”.
02:00 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) and Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speak: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will take part in an event on economic mobility and inclusive full employment hosted by the Chicago Fed. In a talk at the USC School of Public Policy on March 29, Bostic stated that he penciled in “6 [hikes] in 2022, 2 [hikes] in 2023”. In a speech on April 1, Evans stated that his “own baseline assessment is in line with the median projection”.
04:05 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will make closing remarks at an event hosted by the New York Fed and REDF on expanding opportunities and investing in employment social enterprises.
Friday, April 8
10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, February final (consensus +2.1%, last +2.1%)
Source: DB, Goldman, BofA
Mon, 04/04/2022 – 09:43