Long-Bond Yield Surges Towards 2.00%, Erases Omicron Plunge

After collapsing almost 30bps in the first week post-Omicron (and helped by Powell’s uber-hawkish pivot), the long-bond has lifted and chopped its way back to unchanged since Thanksgiving’s unleashing of the highly contagious ‘omicold’…

Source: Bloomberg

The 2Y Yield is up almost 12bps since ‘omicold’, but mainly thanks to the hawkish push since Powell’s speech. The belly of the curve is outperforming notably with 7Y yields -12bps’

Source: Bloomberg

The short-end of the curve is now pricing in a full rate-hike by May 2022 and 3 full hikes by the end of 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

Do anyone really believe that stocks are pricing in this level of hawkishness next year?