The Mises Institute held an event this past Saturday in Fort Myers Florida. Founded in 1982 by Llewellyn Rockwell, promotes the Austrian school of economics following the intellectual tradition of economist Ludwig von Mises, the Austrian economist the institute is named after. According to the website:
“The Mises Institute exists to promote teaching and research in the Austrian school of economics, and individual freedom, honest history, and international peace, in the tradition of Ludwig von Mises and Murray N. Rothbard.” ….“the Institute seeks a free-market capitalist economy and a private-property order that rejects taxation, monetary debasement, and a coercive state monopoly of protective services.”
The event was introduced by Tho Bishop, Mises editorial and content manager, and chairman of the Bay County Republican Party. Speakers included Dr. Jonathan Newman, speaking on the radical uncertainty of a polymorphic fed. Professor Emeritus, Dr. Murray Sabrin, speaking about the oil price-stack market connection, the 100 year financial cycle, and the next crash. Dr. Patrick Newman spoke specifically to the question of whether we are headed toward a recession in 2024. Dr. Bob Murphy spoke on the fed and the state of the dollar.
The event was well received and included several members of the Lee County Republican Executive Committee. Most of these were being exposed to Mises for the first time. The event, being nonpartisan, was also attended by libertarians and independents.
As expected, speakers focused on common themes in the Austrian school of economics, individual liberty, sound money, the eroding dollar, inflation, and the hydra monster called the federal reserve. While none of the speakers guaranteed a recession was coming in 2024, it was clearly expressed as a strong possibility citing several factors including the yield curve inversion. This is when the short term interest rate goes higher than long term interest rate. This has been an accurate predictor of recessions in the past. It was also postulated that the economy may already be in a recession and we just don’t know it.
The correlation between Federal Reserve central planners artificially depressing interest rate, and creating the boom bust cycle was discussed. Dr. Murray Sabrin, author of Navigating the Boom/Bust Cycle: An Entrepreneur’s Survival Guide, spoke on this issue in detail. Sabrin previously wrote in Fortune magazine in 2021:
“I expect the Fed to raise the Fed Funds Rate, sometime in 2022 and to continue tightening in 2023. Thus, the next recession could begin in the fall of 2023, but no later than a year later. If the recession does not begin on schedule, it only means it has been postponed, not eliminated.”
Dr. Sabrin reiterated this opinion Saturday as well. He also brought attention to some more general longer term 100 year cycles. These included the panics of 1792, 1893, and the 1990 (S&L crisis). The panic of 1873, and the oil crisis in 1973. The panic of 1907 and the housing bubble of 2007-08. Sabrin referenced the Great Depression of 1929 when posing the question if 2029 will see the next depression like event?
All of the speakers asserted that there were too many variables to state affirmatively that a recession was coming in 2024. Dr. Murphy stated that he expected the dollar to be dislodged as the world’s reserve currency, and that it was not likely to maintain that status 10-15 years from now.
This originally appeared on Mind Matters and Everything Else.