Oil Extends Longest Losing Streak Since March After Disappointingly Small Crude Draw

Oil Extends Longest Losing Streak Since March After Disappointingly Small Crude Draw

Oil prices fell for the fourth day in a row – its longest losing streak since March – as a strong dollar and dismal US economic data following weak China data (combined with the ongoing spread of Delta around the world) prompted growth scares everywhere.

“Poor data coming out of China is ground zero for reignited global concern surrounding Covid-19,” says Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group.

“Although indicators in the U.S. shows a better situation than China, as the second largest economy, what happens in the region has huge market impact.”

Additionally, U.S. gasoline demand falls for third-straight week, dropping less than 1% to 9.423m b/d in the week ended Aug. 13, Descartes Labs says in survey based on movements of cellular devices.

Algos will be desperately hoping for a bullish surprise from tonight’s inventory data.

API

Crude -1.163mm (-3.1mm exp)

Cushing -1.735mm

Gasoline -1.1979mm

Distillates +502k

After the prior week’s disappointingly small crude draw, analysts expected a sizable drop in inventories but they were disappointed once again when API reported a mere 1.163mm draw (vs 3.1mm exp)

Source: Bloomberg

WTI hovered around $66.75 ahead of the API print and extended losses after…

Despite the fact that OPEC has kept its demand forecast for 2021 unchanged from the previous month at 96.6 million bpd, it has slashed its demand forecast by 1.1 million bpd for 2022 to stand at 99.9 million bpd, up by 3.3 million bpd y/y. The IEA report, on the other hand, is sending a warning signal that growth in demand may slow in the remaining period of 2021 and OPEC+ needs to take a more cautious path towards its policy in 2021.

The next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled to take place next month and the key question here is whether the alliance will consider recent calls from the White House to bring back supply sooner than the group had originally agreed on. Under the current plan, the group will end its supply cuts by September 2022. According to S&P Platts, the production of OPEC+ rose by 750,000 bpd m/m standing at 40.21 million bpd, with 510,000 bpd produced by Saudi Arabia.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 08/17/2021 – 16:33

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