WTI Extends JCPOA Whipsaw Losses After Small Crude Build

WTI Extends JCPOA Whipsaw Losses After Small Crude Build

A volatile in the energy complex as Iran nuke deal headlines (first optimism, then pessimism) sparked a dump-n-pump in crude prices (after Brent tagged $70 earlier in the day).

“I said that significant progress have been achieved, in my view,” Ulyanov said in the tweet.

“That is true. But unresolved issues still remain and the negotiators need more time and efforts to finalise an agreement on restoration of JCPOA.”

A return to the 2015 nuclear deal could allow for the removal of U.S. sanctions on the Persian Gulf country’s crude exports, raising the prospects of more crude coming back to the market. Iran has already been preparing to ramp up global oil sales, though the flow of additional crude may be gradual even if a deal is struck.

As the Colonial Pipeline shutdown is set to show up in this data, we suspect there will be lots of noise and recent trend shifts.

API

Crude +620k (+1.7mm exp)

Cushing -53k

Gasoline -2.837mm (-1.2mm exp)

Distillates -2.581mm (-300k exp)

After a surprisingly small draw the prior week (after a big draw the week before that), analysts expected a modest build last week, likely impacted by the pipeline closures’ impact on refinery demand and API reported a mere 620k barrel build…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI hovered around $65.50 ahead of the API print and dipped lower after the data hit…

Given today’s highly sensitive price action, the only thing that matters for the current trend is JCPOA and not Indian COVID or US reopening demand.

”The devil is in the details,” said Tom Finlon of Brownsville GTR LLC, a trading and logistics firm based in Houston. Despite “periodic comments on progress,” talks have been at “an impasse on substantive issues, so it’s not going to be that easy.”

Finally, we remind readers that, according to the International Energy Agency: The world has a choice — stop developing new oil, gas and coal fields today or face a dangerous rise in global temperatures.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 05/18/2021 – 16:40

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