WTI Extends Losses After (Delayed) Inventory Data

WTI Extends Losses After (Delayed) Inventory Data

Firstly, we note that, for the first time that we can recall, the official data was delayed due to a delay in uploading data.

We expect to post the #WeeklyPetroleumStatusReport at 11am EDT today.

— EIA (@EIAgov) July 14, 2021

The delay continued until 1130ET.

This is highly unusual for a report that is so fundamental to oil market transparency.

*  *  *

After tagging 33-month highs yesterday, oil prices have been chaotic overnight as API inventory data mixed with reports and denials from UAE/OPEC+ over a deal have left WTI lower so far. However, even if a deal is done, timing will remain an issue.

“Even if OPEC decides to raise output in August, that crude will not reach refineries until after the August peak-demand period will be over,” Ed Morse, head of commodities research at Citigroup Inc., said in an email.

The next $1 one way or the other may be driven by the official inventory data, as industry watchers would consider API’s report of a nearly 5m bbl build in diesel bearish, if the U.S. government confirms it.

API

Crude -4.079mm (-4.4mm exp)

Cushing -1.585mm

Gasoline -1.545mm

Distillates +3.699mm

DOE

Crude -7.897mm (-4.4mm exp)

Cushing +1.04mm

Gasoline -2.489mm

Distillates +3.657mm

Expectations for an 8th straight week of crude draws were met with a bigger than expected 7.897mm drop in stocks.

Source: Bloomberg

US gasoline demand is back at its highest since Oct 2019 and back above its 5y average for this time of year (and last week we saw seasonal demand for petroleum products reach a high in data going back three decades)…

Source: Bloomberg

US crude production began to creep higher in the previous week and continued this week…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was trading just below $75 ahead of the official inventory print and accelerated lower after…

Meanwhile, retail gas prices are now at $3.15 (national average, way higher in CA). That is the highest price since 2014…

Source: Bloomberg

And judging by the recent moves in crude and wholesale gasoline prices, retail pump prices are set to go even higher.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/14/2021 – 11:38

Share DeepPol